Republic Day Special

'37'

PARTY TIME ON INDIAN BOURSES

Mahendra Jhamb*

    The eagerly awaited year 2000 ushered in boom times on Indian bourses. In the first two trading sessions, the representative share price indices zoomed up by nearly 500 points corresponding to roughly 10 percent of the familiar sensitive index of Mumbai Stock Exchange.

    For the records, the first trading session of the new millennium accounted for a hefty mark up of around 7.5%. This is the largest rise ever witnessed on the exchange. Till recently the well over a century-old bourse was reckoned as the premier stock market in the country before the National Stock Exchange emerged as the undisputed leader in terms of volume of trading 3 to 4 years back.

    The sensitive share price index of Mumbai, more popularly known as BSE sensex, gathered unprecedented 370 points in the opening day of the new trading year to reach an all-time high of 5385. The new reading surpassed the earlier peak level of 5151 recorded on October 11, 1999.

    The sensex registered a further gain of 115 Points in the second trading session on January 4,2000. Incidentally, these mark ups came on the specified days of the week which are traditionally dubbed as slack and unexciting because of end-account considerations on the national stock exchange which observes Tuesday as its closing day for the week.

    For the records, Indian markets embarked on feverish bullish path at a time when most of the major global markets preferred to slide a bit downwards after hectic buying activity during the concluding days of 1999. Hang Seng of Hong Kong and Straits Times index of Singapore were the other notable gainers with 2.34% and 4.17% rise respectively on the blessed date.

    It is not clear what precisely was the motivating force behind easy trends in major stock exchanges of the world. The fact of the mater is that all the big names in the world stock markets witnessed a sharp fall in the first trading session of the new millennium year.

    The legendary Dow Jones index of New York Stock Exchange went down by 3.17 percent. So did Nasdaq, which had lately been going up and upwards. Although Hang Seng index of Hong recorded a modest gain in the first trading session it nose-dived by more than 7% in the next session. South Korean stocks too met with a similar fate. Tokyo’s Nikkei share index also shed 4%.

    European stocks too had their jitters and the wave of easy undertones on the continent’s bourses unmistakably made its presence felt. London, Paris and Frankfurt stock markets had no option but to fall in line.

    Analysts have premised that after the recent sharp rallies in stocks in the United States correction was very much on the cards. The falls were driven mostly by telecom stock sell-offs. It will not be out of place to mention here that Nasdaq exchange in United States, considered as the mother exchange for technology stocks, is still reeling under the impact of weak undertones.

    At one time, Nasdaq index had crossed the coveted 4000 points mark. On Thursday, January 6, it continued its downward march to reach the level of 3727 points. Towards the end of 1999 the share price bands on this exchange had maintained the unique tradition of gaining strength almost every trading day.

    Although Indian stocks did not follow the global downtrend at the beginning of the new year the trading session on Wednesday, January 5, presented a different picture. Stock prices lost ground to the tune of 134 points. Predictably enough, technology stocks were the major losers.

    However, on Thursday the market recovered roughly half the points it lost a day earlier. It would indeed be interesting to note that 1999 proved to be an eventful year for Indian stocks. At the end of November 1998 the sensex closed at 2742 points. By end of 1999 it rose smartly to a little over 5000 points. And early in the year 2000 it broke all previous records to climb up to 5384 points.

    The new level is more than double the level recorded 13 months back. While the sensex rose smartly during the blessed period, it will be wrong to assume that the mark up in share price index was of exceptional nature as was the case with Dow Jones index of NYSE.

    It would be worthwhile to remember that the world famous Dow Jones index of NYSE had consistently set new records during the course of the just concluded year by rising upwards from the level of under 6000 points to over 11,000 points within a spell of the last few months.

    To be precise, Indian stocks were lately passing through a relatively depressed phase before 1999 brought a new spark of hope in the wake of rising price bands on the market. The stocks had touched a reasonably high level of more than 4600 points mark way back in the summer months of 1994.

    There were indeed ups and downs in the intervening period but the consistent upsurge in stock prices in India came only recently. Perhaps the first major push was accorded by the confident Indian entry of selected Indian technology stocks on the renowned global trading centres like Nasdaq.

    At he same time, stock prices of many leading Indian companies rose sharply in line with a host of companies operating at the global level. This is indeed a very encouraging development and promises a seemingly bright future for shares of multinational companies in India as also for big and medium range domestic enterprises.

    The first trading session of year, the century, as also the millennium brought lots of cheers to Indian shareholders who found that the intrinsic worth of their shares had swelled by Rs.40,000 crore in a single trading session to touch an all-time high of Rs.9,87,000 crore on BSE. On the next trading day it merrily leaped forward to over Rs.10,00,000 crore.

    In its effort to keep a check on volatility on the market, the exchange authorities have a system of clamping circuit breakers on individual scrip which are activated as soon as the rise or fall in a particular scrip touches the level of 8 percent in the trading session.

    On Monday, January 3, a record number of 708 scrips hit the upper price bands where further trading on the bourse automatically attracted freezing of trade in the scrip. Interestingly, 411 scrips hit new high levels in the past 52 weeks. The buoyancy on the market was evident from the fact that of these at least 395 scrips belonged to the cash section.

    A notable feature of trading for the day was that every 3 out of 4 scrips traded on BSE recorded advances. A total of 2095 scrips turned out to be gainers while only 564 experienced a decline. No wonder, in the millennium India has emerged as the new Asian tiger.

    Incidentally, in the later part of the decade of nineties Indian stocks had for long been in the dumps. The shining spot had been the just concluded year of 1999. Analysts now feel that time has come for Indian stocks to advance forward and scale new peaks.

    Apparently, the gala party has just begun. Many Indian stocks are rearing to exert their weight and ability to march forward. In the weeks and months to come many share counters on the market are expected to set new records and reach very high levels hitherto unimaginable.(PIB)

* Stock Market Analyst